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三季度经济回升或昙花一现

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月23日 23:46:13
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99彩 股st东36633 、信誉平台官方,招龙虎和代理注册实力招商主管Q扣99277339,永久注册网址www.yicai269.com时时彩龙虎和,意彩彩票代理,意彩官网,意彩平台注册,意彩乐官网,意彩娱乐官方网站三季度经济回升或昙花一现

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(  在)(国)(家)(层)(面)(发)(布)(经)(济)(回)(升)(向)(好)(数)(据)(的)(同)(时)(,地)(方)(公)(布)(的)(经)(济)(数)(据)(却)(未)(见)(好)(转)(迹)(象)(,连)(名)(列)(全)(国)(前)(几)(名)(的)(贵)(州)(、云)(南)(、重)(庆)(,前)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(也)(仅)(与)(上)(半)(年)(基)(本)(持)(平)(。
  这)(是)(向)(好)(的)(拐)(点)(,还)(是)(昙)(花)(一)(现)(?
  在)(10月)(18日)(公)(布)(好)(于)(预)(期)(的)(前)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(数)(字)(后)(,外)(界)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(疑)(问)(仍)(挥)(之)(不)(去)(。
  国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(当)(天)(公)(布)(的)(数)(字)(显)(示)(,今)(年)(前)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(为)(7.7%。其)(中)(第)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(为)(7.8%,相)(比)(第)(二)(季)(度)(的)(7.5%有)(较)(大)(幅)(度)(回)(升)(。按)(此)(势)(头)(,实)(现)(全)(年)(7.5%的)(增)(长)(目)(标)(应)(有)(把)(握)(。
  不)(过)(,2012年)(第)(四)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(也)(一)(度)(攀)(升)(到)(7.9%,而)(紧)(接)(着)(在)(今)(年)(一)(季)(度)(就)(回)(落)(到)(了)(7.7%。而)(2012年)(全)(年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(只)(有)(7.6%,是)(改)(革)(开)(放)(以)(来)(除)(个)(别)(非)(正)(常)(年)(份)(外)(的)(最)(低)(值)(。
  目)(前)(国)(家)(宏)(观)(综)(合)(主)(管)(部)(门)(人)(士)(一)(般)(的)(判)(断)(认)(为)(,支)(撑)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(潜)(在)(增)(速)(已)(经)(下)(降)(到)(7%-8%,今)(后)(经)(济)(将)(再)(难)(回)(到)(8%以)(上)(。
  事)(实)(上)(,从)(今)(年)(9月)(的)(部)(分)(经)(济)(数)(据)(已)(经)(出)(现)(回)(落)(看)(,今)(年)(第)(四)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(将)(放)(缓)(,这)(几)(乎)(已)(成)(定)(局)(。
  国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(新)(闻)(发)(言)(人)(盛)(来)(运)(10月)(18日)(的)(公)(开)(表)(述)(是)(,去)(年)(四)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(长)(基)(数)(会)(对)(今)(年)(四)(季)(度)(同)(比)(增)(长)(产)(生)(一)(些)(变)(化)(,“经)(济)(继)(续)(上)(行)(确)(实)(有)(些)(压)(力)(,但)(是)(总)(体)(来)(讲)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(保)(持)(平)(稳)(运)(行)(是)(一)(个)(大)(概)(率)(事)(件)(。”
  目)(前)(各)(省)(市)(正)(陆)(续)(召)(开)(前)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(,各)(地)(纷)(纷)(反)(映)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(仍)(比)(较)(大)(。即)(便)(是)(全)(国)(前)(几)(名)(中)(,贵)(州)(、云)(南)(预)(计)(前)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(也)(分)(别)(只)(有)(12.5%、12.4%左)(右)(,重)(庆)(则)(是)(12.4%,均)(与)(上)(半)(年)(持)(平)(。广)(东)(预)(计)(为)(8.5%,也)(与)(上)(半)(年)(持)(平)(,并)(未)(出)(现)(全)(国)(数)(据)(中)(那)(种)(加)(快)(的)(迹)(象)(。相)(反)(,一)(些)(指)(标)(还)(出)(现)(了)(下)(滑)(。
  对)(此)(,海)(通)(证)(券)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(李)(迅)(雷)(分)(析)(认)(为)(,第)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(大)(幅)(回)(升)(难)(以)(持)(续)(,因)(为)(这)(主)(要)(仍)(然)(是)(依)(靠)(投)(资)(拉)(动)(。他)(预)(计)(第)(四)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(将)(向)(下)(滑)(到)(7.4%。他)(建)(议)(明)(年)(的)(经)(济)(目)(标)(可)(以)(下)(调)(0.5个)(百)(分)(点)(,达)(到)(7%。
  投)(资)(拉)(动)(仍)(占)(大)(头)(
  国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(18日)(公)(布)(的)(数)(字)(显)(示)(,今)(年)(第)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(比)(第)(二)(季)(度)(加)(快)(了)(0.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,达)(到)(7.8%,与)(去)(年)(第)(四)(季)(度)(的)(7.9%接)(近)(。而)(对)(于)(接)(下)(来)(的)(第)(四)(季)(度)(的)(经)(济)(前)(景)(,受)(访)(的)(分)(析)(人)(士)(的)(判)(断)(有)(所)(不)(同)(。
  交)(通)(银)(行)(分)(析)(师)(唐)(建)(伟)(认)(为)(,今)(年)(四)(季)(度)(国)(内)(GDP增)(速)(仍)(将)(维)(持)(平)(衡)(增)(长)(态)(势)(,而)(同)(比)(增)(速)(则)(可)(能)(因)(为)(去)(年)(四)(季)(度)(基)(数)(较)(高)(原)(因)(略)(有)(回)(落)(,预)(计)(在)(7.6%左)(右)(,这)(样)(2013全)(年)(经)(济)(增)(速)(仍)(能)(保)(持)(在)(7.6%左)(右)(。
  也)(有)(相)(对)(悲)(观)(的)(看)(法)(。李)(迅)(雷)(认)(为)(,今)(年)(四)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(可)(能)(只)(有)(7.4%。主)(要)(原)(因)(是)(,目)(前)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(主)(要)(依)(赖)(投)(资)(,由)(于)(地)(方)(投)(资)(依)(赖)(负)(债)(,很)(难)(持)(续)(。地)(方)(融)(资)(平)(台)(规)(模)(比)(较)(大)(,债)(务)(融)(资)(非)(常)(快)(,拉)(动)(了)(投)(资)(增)(长)(。“和)(去)(年)(相)(比)(,今)(年)(的)(经)(济)(结)(构)(并)(无)(改)(善)(,反)(而)(恶)(化)(了)(。”
  国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(18日)(发)(布)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,前)(三)(季)(度)(对)(经)(济)(贡)(献)(的)(“三)(驾)(马)(车)(”中)(,投)(资)(对)(GDP增)(速)(的)(贡)(献)(率)(是)(55.8%,拉)(动)(GDP增)(长)(4.3个)(百)(分)(点)(;而)(消)(费)(只)(贡)(献)(了)(45.9%,拉)(动)(GDP增)(长)(3.5个)(百)(分)(点)(。货)(物)(和)(服)(务)(净)(出)(口)(则)(是)(负)(贡)(献)(。这)(与)(国)(家)(致)(力)(于)(提)(高)(消)(费)(对)(经)(济)(贡)(献)(率)(,改)(变)(过)(分)(依)(赖)(投)(资)(的)(结)(构)(调)(整)(方)(向)(仍)(距)(离)(甚)(远)(。
  更)(令)(人)(担)(忧)(的)(是)(,今)(年)(以)(来)(投)(资)(和)(工)(业)(的)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,仍)(主)(要)(来)(自)(于)(重)(化)(工)(业)(,尤)(其)(是)(一)(些)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(行)(业)(。比)(如)(国)(家)(认)(为)(过)(剩)(严)(重)(的)(水)(泥)(、钢)(铁)(、平)(板)(玻)(璃)(等)(生)(产)(投)(资)(仍)(在)(加)(快)(。前)(三)(季)(度)(,全)(国)(钢)(材)(增)(长)(11.7%,水)(泥)(增)(长)(8.9%,平)(板)(玻)(璃)(增)(长)(11.3%。
  “前)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(加)(快)(,但)(是)(结)(构)(并)(未)(有)(大)(的)(改)(善)(,这)(不)(能)(算)(是)(太)(健)(康)(。而)(经)(济)(要)(可)(持)(续)(,需)(要)(居)(民)(收)(入)(快)(速)(增)(长)(。”中)(国)(社)(科)(院)(经)(济)(形)(势)(分)(析)(组)(专)(家)(沈)(利)(生)(指)(出)(。
  而)(实)(际)(情)(况)(是)(,去)(年)(以)(来)(,城)(镇)(居)(民)(收)(入)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(增)(速)(一)(直)(低)(于)(地)(区)(生)(产)(总)(值)((GDP),今)(年)(第)(三)(季)(度)(只)(增)(长)(6.8%,低)(于)(经)(济)(增)(速)(近)(1个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  对)(此)(,盛)(来)(运)(则)(认)(为)(比)(较)(正)(常)(,经)(济)(增)(速)(在)(继)(续)(放)(缓)(,收)(入)(增)(速)(不)(可)(能)(不)(受)(到)(影)(响)(。“这)(几)(年)(经)(济)(增)(速)(在)(回)(落)(,一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(必)(然)(会)(在)(收)(入)(上)(体)(现)(出)(来)(。这)(是)(今)(年)(收)(入)(增)(长)(速)(度)(比)(去)(年)(同)(比)(增)(速)(低)(的)(一)(个)(很)(重)(要)(的)(原)(因)(。”
  中)(央)(唱)(好)(地)(方)(唱)(忧)(?
  另)(一)(个)(显)(得)(有)(点)(“怪)(异)(”的)(迹)(象)(是)(,在)(国)(家)(层)(面)(发)(布)(逐)(步)(转)(好)(的)(数)(据)(时)(,地)(方)(层)(面)(公)(布)(的)(数)(字)(却)(并)(未)(见)(明)(显)(的)(向)(好)(,相)(反)(忧)(虑)(之)(声)(仍)(存)(在)(。
  比)(如)(作)(为)(目)(前)(全)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(前)(几)(名)(的)(云)(南)(省)(、贵)(州)(、重)(庆)(,预)(计)(前)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(分)(别)(为)(12.4%、12.5%、12.4%,与)(上)(半)(年)(一)(样)(,广)(东)(前)(三)(季)(度)(是)(8.5%,与)(一)(季)(度)(、上)(半)(年)(也)(一)(样)(,均)(未)(有)(加)(快)(。而)(全)(国)(是)(前)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(为)(7.7%,比)(上)(半)(年)(的)(7.6%高)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  各)(地)(还)(普)(遍)(对)(经)(济)(下)(行)(表)(示)(了)(很)(大)(的)(担)(忧)(。其)(中)(云)(南)(省)(发)(改)(委)(判)(断)(,该)(省)(经)(济)(面)(临)(经)(济)(指)(标)(增)(速)(回)(落)(,企)(业)(生)(产)(经)(营)(仍)(然)(未)(走)(出)(困)(境)(,保)(持)(消)(费)(较)(快)(增)(长)(的)(动)(力)(不)(足)(,资)(金)(筹)(措)(依)(然)(困)(难)(,财)(政)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(压)(力)(较)(大)(等)(问)(题)(。
  贵)(州)(省)(省)(长)(陈)(敏)(尔)(则)(在)(本)(省)(举)(行)(的)(前)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(上)(指)(出)(,今)(年)(前)(三)(季)(度)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(形)(势)(还)(不)(宽)(松)(,全)(省)(经)(济)(回)(升)(基)(础)(还)(不)(牢)(固)(。陕)(西)(省)(省)(长)(娄)(勤)(俭)(也)(在)(类)(似)(场)(合)(表)(示)(,目)(前)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(加)(大)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,受)(宏)(观)(环)(境)(影)(响)(,部)(分)(重)(点)(工)(作)(推)(进)(不)(够)(理)(想)(。广)(东)(则)(出)(现)(了)(工)(业)(增)(速)(、投)(资)(增)(速)(、进)(出)(口)(增)(速)(数)(字)(均)(下)(滑)(的)(情)(况)(。
  前)(三)(季)(度)(,广)(东)(规)(模)(以)(上)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(增)(长)(8.7%,比)(上)(半)(年)(和)(一)(季)(度)(分)(别)(回)(落)(0.4个)(、0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。进)(出)(口)(总)(额)(增)(长)(13.8%,比)(上)(半)(年)(和)(一)(季)(度)(分)(别)(回)(落)(7.4个)(、23.9个)(百)(分)(点)(,其)(中)(9月)(单)(月)(进)(出)(口)(总)(额)(同)(比)(下)(降)(5.2%,环)(比)(下)(降)(5.1%。特)(别)(是)(富)(士)(康)(、华)(为)(、中)(兴)(通)(讯)(等)(电)(子)(信)(息)(类)(的)(大)(企)(业)(1-8月)(出)(口)(均)(为)(负)(增)(长)(。
  为)(应)(对)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(,各)(地)(正)(纷)(纷)(布)(置)(大)(上)(快)(上)(项)(目)(,促)(进)(招)(商)(和)(投)(资)(、消)(费)(,以)(及)(出)(口)(快)(速)(增)(长)(等)(系)(列)(措)(施)(。
  但)(李)(迅)(雷)(认)(为)(,目)(前)(居)(民)(收)(入)(增)(长)(放)(慢)(,企)(业)(盈)(利)(水)(平)(降)(低)(,投)(资)(缺)(乏)(效)(益)(,各)(地)(此)(时)(大)(上)(项)(目)(,相)(当)(多)(的)(还)(是)(投)(资)(过)(剩)(行)(业)(,将)(难)(以)(最)(终)(拉)(动)(经)(济)(增)(长)(。
  国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(近)(期)(对)(40万)(户)(企)(业)(的)(调)(查)(显)(示)(,65.1%的)(工)(业)(企)(业)(认)(为)(四)(季)(度)(或)(者)(以)(后)(一)(个)(时)(期)(经)(济)(与)(三)(季)(度)(相)(比)(基)(本)(不)(变)(,22.8%的)(认)(为)(将)(转)(好)(。
  而)(地)(方)(公)(布)(的)(调)(查)(结)(果)(却)(并)(不)(乐)(观)(。比)(如)(广)(东)(地)(方)(政)(府)(的)(调)(查)(显)(示)(,9月)(份)(全)(省)(直)(通)(车)(重)(点)(企)(业)(平)(台)(对)(服)(务)(业)(企)(业)(的)(调)(查)(问)(卷)(,有)(78.3%的)(企)(业)(新)(订)(单)((业)(务)(需)(求)(量)()比)(上)(月)(减)(少)(或)(基)(本)(持)(平)(。
  同)(时)(随)(着)(家)(电)(节)(能)(补)(贴)(等)(政)(策)(退)(出)(,内)(需)(市)(场)(增)(长)(动)(力)(有)(所)(减)(弱)(。同)(时)(企)(业)(营)(销)(成)(本)(偏)(高)(。据)(测)(算)(,2012年)(,广)(东)(省)(社)(会)(物)(流)(总)(费)(用)(8600亿)(元)(,约)(占)(GDP的)(15.1%,推)(高)(了)(商)(品)(的)(最)(终)(消)(费)(价)(格)(,制)(约)(消)(费)(需)(求)(的)(进)(一)(步)(释)(放)(。
  受)(访)(的)(分)(析)(人)(士)(认)(为)(,目)(前)(中)(国)(经)(济)(潜)(在)(增)(速)(已)(经)(下)(降)(到)(7%-8%的)(区)(间)(。未)(来)(即)(便)(各)(地)(和)(国)(家)(加)(大)(投)(资)(,仍)(难)(以)(使)(得)(经)(济)(长)(期)(保)(持)(在)(8%以)(上)(,更)(无)(可)(能)(再)(现)(改)(革)(开)(放)(以)(来)(10%的)(平)(均)(增)(速)(。同)(时)(由)(于)(从)(今)(年)(开)(始)(启)(动)(全)(国)(大)(气)(治)(理)(计)(划)(,预)(计)(大)(部)(分)(重)(工)(业)(偏)(重)(的)(省)(市)(由)(于)(要)(削)(减)(钢)(铁)(和)(煤)(炭)(消)(费)(量)(,2014年)(的)(经)(济)(增)(速)(目)(标)(将)(不)(得)(不)(下)(调)(。
  “考)(虑)(到)(十)(二)(五)(经)(济)(增)(长)(目)(标)(只)(有)(7%,明)(年)(经)(济)(目)(标)(也)(需)(要)(降)(到)(此)(水)(平)(,否)(则)(对)(五)(年)(发)(展)(规)(划)(也)(不)(够)(尊)(重)(。”李)(迅)(雷)(说)(。
  中)(国)(社)(科)(院)(学)(部)(委)(员)(张)(卓)(元)(表)(示)(,与)(其)(需)(要)(努)(力)(加)(大)(投)(资)(使)(得)(经)(济)(达)(到)(7.5%之)(上)(,不)(如)(将)(经)(济)(增)(速)(就)(定)(为)(7%。“因)(为)(我)(们)(还)(处)(于)(工)(业)(化)(、城)(镇)(化)(的)(过)(程)(中)(,7%是)(没)(有)(问)(题)(的)(,但)(是)(一)(定)(要)(7.5%,为)(了)(0.5%很)(可)(能)(要)(靠)(很)(多)(货)(币)(拉)(动)(,把)(速)(度)(再)(稍)(微)(调)(低)(一)(点)(,可)(以)(留)(下)(更)(大)(的)(余)(地)(,有)(利)(于)(结)(构)(的)(转)(型)(和)(升)(级)(。”
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在)(国)(家)(层)(面)(发)(布)(经)(济)(回)(升)(向)(好)(数)(据)(的)(同)(时)(,地)(方)(公)(布)(的)(经)(济)(数)(据)(却)(未)(见)(好)(转)(迹)(象)(,连)(名)(列)(全)(国)(前)(几)(名)(的)(贵)(州)(、云)(南)(、重)(庆)(,前)(三)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(也)(仅)(与)(上)(半)(年)(基)(本)(持)(平)(。这)(是)(向)(好)(的)(拐)(点)(
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